2012年6月13日星期三

Bank of Spain: Do not say that the emergency rescue | The Economist

Bank of Spain
Do not say it is emergency relief
June 10, 2012, 19:30, Madrid

Euro-zone countries for the reorganization of assets of the Bank of Spain to provide 100 billion euros (126 billion U.S. dollars). Although this 100 billion euro to see how all emergency relief, the Government of Spain but do not want to admit. "This is not assistance", the Spanish Finance Minister Luis Kim Doss (Luis de Guindos), said. June 9, after two and a half-hour meeting with the 17-country euro zone finance ministers, Louis announced that the Bank of Spain's aid agreement has been negotiated. (Mariano Rajoy, as shown above) Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said: "This is a loan, additional conditions are also favorable to Spain. While its processing relief matters, the Prime Minister himself busy scene to create a business as usual everything. Followed by the next day, when the Prime Minister finally appeared at the press conference before he repeatedly said yesterday that matter. Seems to emergency relief program that he was embarrassed, so did not mention a few words of "emergency relief". After the conference, the Prime Minister will fly to Poland to go to watch football.
In fact, this can be understood, after all, confidence in the banking system is very important thing. Of course, say that a bit ridiculous. The face of the banking crisis, the approach is very typical in Spain. Boasted the one hand, on the one hand, deny that the crisis. This approach, ultimately proved to be self-defeating. But the good news is that the 100 billion loan, indicating that this country finally begin to address its banking problems. 100 billion euros higher than most analysts assess the demand for funds sufficient to protect the Bank of Spain from the new shocks.
The Spanish government says Oliver Wyman Oliver Wyman, and Roland Berger (Roland Berger) Two independent consulting company to submit an assessment report, the bank funds needed to make a detailed description. These two reports will be submitted to government June 21. The IMF in a report on the evening of June 8, Spain has 40 billion euros of funding loopholes. The loan funds (100 billion euros) more than twice this figure in the IMF, the IMF still warned that Spain will need to further buffer funds. Last week, Fitch Ratings said the Bank of Spain 500 - € 60 billion of new capital, but if the situation deteriorates, and the figure will rise to 100 billion euro. Government should require enough money to convince the market, Spain is not third underestimated the demand. (February, March, Spain twice by more than 800 million of funds raised reserve extraction, has proved to be totally inadequate.)
Aid funds through the national context of Bank Assistance Fund FROB (Fund for Orderly Bank, Restructuring, namely banking and orderly restructuring Fund) to distribute, so will the sovereign debt account. Aid funds are fully used, will increase the debt burden of about 10% of GDP in Spain. Even so, 2015, the proportion of debt to GDP is high should also be lower than 100%. Compared to the euro area other high-debt countries, much lower.
But some details of the bailout plan is still vague. First, we do not know what the conditions attached to aid. The Spanish Government claims that the other aspects of the rescue package of its economic and unconditional requirements. Other European finance ministers may not think so. Euro Group praised Spain's reforms, but said it will carefully monitor the deficit procedure and the structural reforms. In their own words, "We will carefully and regularly check these improvements, at the same time impose financial assistance." Euro Group also referred to "the level of the domestic financial sector structural reforms", which certainly means that some additional conditions.
Second, the euro group did not elaborate on Spain is from the existing aid funds (European financial stability of institutions, the European Financial Stability Facility or EFSF) to borrow, or borrow from will start running in July, "the new European stability mechanism". This is very important, because the loans from EFSF does not have a higher priority than other creditors, ESM loan is higher than the priority of private creditors. Therefore, from which the loan will make Spain's sovereign bond investors become anxious.
The aid scheme will affect the Spanish market borrowing capacity? Clean up the banking system is a positive step, but on its own is not enough. The entire country's total economic output, is expected in the next two years will continue to contract. Bank assistance programs, even to reduce the country's credit crunch state, is unlikely to reverse the overall downward trend. Greece leave the euro zone, Spain will likely find its own market and refrain.

没有评论: