2012年6月26日星期二

Beijing go all out and tried to maintain growth.

Thursday night, June 7, the central bank announced a decline in interest rates by 0.25 percent. This is the first cut since the winter of 2008, central bank interest rates. The Chinese government encountered difficulties in sustaining economic growth, but will still go all out to maintain growth. On May 20 the same year, Premier Wen Jiabao has said that it is time to make greater efforts to ensure economic growth.
To create a situation in China's internal economic downturn, Europe, the adverse export of China's largest commercial partner led. The most economic indicators confirms the status of the economic slowdown.
A quarter of gross domestic product (GDP) grew by only 8.1 percent, its lowest level for three years over the same period. HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index shows China manufacturing capacity for seven consecutive months reduced contractility.
The concerns of the World Bank
In April of this year, China's retail growth of 14.1 percent in March to 15.2 percent. The first quarter, the investment growth of 20.9 percent, data released by the end of April does not exceed 20.2%. May data, as of June 9, is still not ideal.
World Bank May 23, predicted the possibility of a gradual slowdown of China's economic growth rate has increased. It is also expected that China's economic growth this year of 8.2%. The World Bank is still excessive recession of the economies in the world to worry about. HSBC economist Sun Junwei explained: For China, to maintain economic growth at 8% -9% is required. He said: "At present, Chinese job market is stable, but the current data is delayed data, if the economic growth of less than 8% will cause the unemployment crisis and affect social stability".
Inflation will still controlled
The World Bank believes that there is still enough to get through this crisis. Here are some positive measures.
The first is monetary policy. From Friday onwards, the reference rate fell 0.25 percentage point, annual borrowing rate from 6.56% to 6.31%. Meanwhile, the annual deposit rate declined from 3.5% to 3.25%.
Monetary policy, inflation expectations and more. For a time, to control inflation the main objective. The end of April this year, consumer prices rose 3.4 percent to 3.6 percent in March.
At the same time, Beijing has again embarked on economic stimulus to promote the plan. The plan did not named. However, no one thinks that the Chinese government will be as invested heavily in the fall of 2008 - 4 trillion yuan to the expansion of high-speed rail network and road construction.
Initiatives to promote consumer
Sun Junwei said that the economic stimulus plan will cost less than the 2008 economic stimulus plan, 1/3 of the money, but that does not affect the implementation of the economic stimulus plan. In recent months, the administrative approval of large investment projects has accelerated noticeably. The central planning agency in the first four months of this year already has approved 868 projects last year only approved 363 projects.
On the other hand, Beijing has implemented measures to support consumption: for example, from June 1, the purchase of air conditioners and refrigerators subsidies of 400 yuan (50 euros). This will spend a total of 26.5 billion yuan (3.3 billion euros).
The Chinese government will also use this period to promote the liberalization of interest rates has long been desired. This will re-adjustment of the Chinese economy to the development of domestic consumption. Since March, this economies in transition looks very tight. The central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said, this open on an economic restructuring.
From Friday onwards, the Bank of China to provide customers with more than 10% of the central bank interest rates of deposit receipts, 20% reduction in lending rates. The short term, this has never been a flexible measures will further attract potential borrowers of the bank's customers.
Rising "corruption" valance
Some of those who oppose the liberalization of interest rates to emphasize once widening the gap between lending and deposit - borrowing rate of 6.31% over the same period deposit interest rate of 3.25%. This will give the Chinese banks, especially state-owned banks huge profits. However, this help banks cope with the economic stimulus plan has generated a certain amount of bad loans in 2008.
Stephen Green, Standard Chartered PLC, and Li Wei in Friday's issue of log writes: the gradual decline in interest rates is the close of the lending and deposit rates, which will reduce bank profits. So far, Beijing's point of view: Bank profits from the huge gap in the real economy, this profit less deformed. The question of non-performing loans in the future, which need to be independent to be considered solved.
Beijing needs a regulation issued by the local government borrowing. In June 2011, the state announced loans of € 1.148 trillion, the Moody's rating agency that up to 375 billion euros. This raised the hangings of the "corruption". Banking Regulatory Commission said in June 4th, measures should be taken to respond to outside criticism of the Bank. The bank claims a large number of loan problems, but at the same time showing more and more vulnerable to non-performing loan ratio on its account.



















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