2012年6月18日星期一

The end of the Asian miracle - Anthony Fanageta Mill "foreign policy"


The End of the Asian Miracle The investment guru who coined the term "emerging markets" returns from Asia, finds that the slowdown is real, and offers five game-changing events that are reshaping the global economy. BY ANTOINE VAN AGTMAEL | JUNE 11, 2012
创造了“新兴市场”一词的资深投资人刚刚结束了其亚洲之行,他发现亚洲发展的放缓是真实存在的,并列出了五条可重塑全球经济的五大事件。本文作者:安东尼·范阿格塔米尔|2012.6.11

Foreign Policy introduces "Trip Report," a new feature that takes readers behind closed doors with some of the world's sharpest minds for an intimate, unfiltered look at subjects ranging from the European economic crisis to the course of the war in Afghanistan. Think of it as a new kind of intelligence -- a backstage pass to rooms you haven't been cleared into before.
《外交政策》杂志新推出“差旅报告”版块,旨在为深居简出的读者带来来自全球最顶尖人士的犀利评论,从欧洲经济危机到阿富汗战争,给你未经加工的原始材料,让你如临其境、感同身受。您可将此作为一个新的信息来源——它可以为你打开一扇窗,带你走进以前无法进入的领域。
Where I went: I recently returned from a two-week trip to Asia, visiting India, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, and South Korea. I've been to these countries many times over the past 25 years in my capacity as chief investment officer and later chairman of Emerging Markets Management and AshmoreEMM. During my trip I met with a number of high-level policymakers, bankers, company executives, investors, think tanks, and scholars. But where there was once almost universal optimism, this time I came away with a very different sense. A few years ago there was a widespread feeling that the developed world had fallen off its pedestal -- that Asia had not only escaped the global financial crisis but that its system was somehow superior. That overconfidence seems gone now. Instead, there is a sense of vulnerability. There is more awareness of the political Achilles' heel of their own path of development and even new economic concerns about challenges to their newly acquired competitive edge.
       我去了哪:我最近刚刚结束了为期两周的亚洲之行,访问了印度、泰国、中国大陆、香港、台湾以及韩国。作为美国新兴市场管理公司以及艾什摩尔公司的首席投资人,近25年,这些国家我已经去过很多次。此行,我会见了几位政府高官,银行家,公司高管,投资人,智囊团以及学者。但是此行,我在某些一度受到乐观预计的事情上,却得出了较之以往完全不同的结论和感受。几年前,人们曾经深深地相信,发展中国家已经从底层脱离出来了——亚洲不仅走出了经济危机的阴霾,而且还在某种程度上证明了其体系的优越性。而这样的过度自信现在似乎已经消失不见。取而代之的是一种脆弱感。他们已经越来越清醒地认识到了其发展道路上的政治短板,而未来,新的竞争优势又将面临何种挑战,会对经济将造成何种影响,他们甚至也已经开始担忧。
The takeaway: Confidence about political stability and effectiveness has been shaken in China, India, and other emerging markets. The Arab Spring was a shock wave that not only brought to light misdeeds of autocratic regimes but also created economic uncertainties for the future. In BRICs at two ends of the political spectrum, political stability has turned out to be more fragile than earlier assumed. The Bo Xilai case in China has raised questions about the legitimacy of the whole political succession process. And Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's disappointing performance in India (some business leaders even told me he had "lost it") has created gridlock in New Delhi while emboldening states.
       我看到了什么:在中国、印度和一些其他新兴市场,政治的稳定性和高效性已经辜负众望。“阿拉伯之春”民主运动在让我们看到独裁政治的罪恶的同时,也会增加其未来经济发展的不确定性。像“金砖四国” 这样位于政治光谱两端的国家,其政治稳定性比通常预期的还要脆弱。在中国,薄熙来案引发了关于整个政坛继承体制的合法性的思考。在印度,总理辛格表现让人失望(一些商界领袖甚至跟我说他“宝刀已老”),不仅在新德里造成僵局,也壮了各邦的胆子。
At the height of the financial crisis, local elites and the broader population in India and China viewed indecision, stagnation in policymaking, corruptive power of vested interests, and lack of leadership as major problems in the United States, Europe, and Japan -- but these same people are now concerned that they face similar problems. On the positive side, turmoil from Tunisia to Myanmar has brought hope and a feeling of empowerment. The sudden transformation now under way in Myanmar has re-energized Southeast Asia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as a sizable, relevant, and vital economic entity nestled between the two emerging regional superpowers, China and India.
       在金融危机的高峰期,印度和中国政府暴露出很多问题:决策上缺乏决断力和时效性,当权者利益交织、政治腐败,在关键问题上缺少像美国、日本和欧洲国家的领导力,这都是当地社会精英甚至普通民众有目共睹的——但是正是这些找问题的人现在可能也面临着相似的问题。从积极的角度看,突尼斯和缅甸的动乱让他们看到了真正获得权力的希望,让他们开始向往手中掌权的感觉。如今缅甸进行中的突然转变重新赋予了东南亚和东盟以力量,作为一个地域广阔、休戚与共的重要经济实体存在于两个新兴的区域超级大国——中国和印度。
The other big question involves the economic future of the leading emerging market -- China. Who would have thought a decade ago that the United States would lose its unquestioned AAA credit status? Until recently, it would have been equally unthinkable that questions are now being raised about whether China will remain the unquestioned manufacturing champion. Its wages have risen, its currency is more expensive, its labor surplus has evaporated, its population is aging fast, and other emerging markets are emulating its impressive infrastructure. Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand (and one day, perhaps Myanmar) are mentioned more often as places where global manufacturers are looking to set up new plants. Even the United States now is seen as a place that manufacturers are turning to. Slower growth in China and India is becoming accepted as a new reality.
       另外一个事关未来经济发展的重大问题在于新兴市场的引领者——中国。十年前,谁曾预料到美国会失去3A的信用等级?同样地,在现阶段,谁会去质疑中国会不会失去其制造业的领先地位?但是事实是,中国现在工资上涨,货币升值,劳动力剩余趋向,人口老龄化加快,其他的新兴市场在建设基础设施、奋力赶超中国。孟加拉国、越南、菲律宾和泰国(将来甚至包括缅甸),这些国家正吸引着全球制造商越来越多的关注,成为他们建立工厂的新选择。甚至有人认为美国应该成为制造业的新基地。中国和印度发展将放缓已经成为既定事实。
Conventional wisdom debunked: For the past five years or so, the idea had become commonplace that the United States was losing the race for global competitiveness. In my own book, The Emerging Markets Century, I wrote about how the rise of China and India was shifting the competitive edge and how some emerging multinationals (from Samsung Electronics in South Korea to Embraer in Brazil) were becoming world-class companies. All of that remains true; emerging markets remain the place to be for the next decade at least. But, interestingly, the creative, competitive response I had expected seems to be coming even faster than I had thought. In fact, the United States may be doing better than we thought, and China and other rising powers may not be doing quite as well as believed.
       传统认知受质疑:在过去五年左右的时间内,有一种的看法已被大众所接受,那就是美国正在在全球竞争力的竞赛中败下阵来。在我的书《世界是新的:新兴市场崛起与争锋的世纪》中,我写到了中国和印度的的崛起怎样改变了世界范围内的竞争优势,新兴的跨国公司(从韩国三星电子到巴西航空工业公司)如何变成了世界级的大公司。所有这些表述都没有错,新兴市场任然会是制造业最佳的选择,至少在未来的十年是。但是,有趣的是,在创新性和竞争力上,双方实力已经发生转变,这比我当初预期的要快。确实,我们没料到美国能表现如此优秀,而中国和其他新兴市场则不尽如人意。
We have all come to assume that the developed world lost its drive or "will to win," ceding manufacturing to emerging markets. China and India built impressive manufacturing platforms or back-office strengths based on a belated unleashing of private-sector initiative, low labor costs, and impressive investment in infrastructure. China and others gained a near monopoly on making cheap goods cheaply. Consumers in the United States began to feel that China had won the battle for shelf space in Walmart. American infrastructure fell way behind in building a 21st-century network of roads, rails, bridges, pipelines, airports, and communications technology. Political antagonism combined with the budget and debt crises had placed the onus on "expense cutting" instead of rebuilding infrastructure to remain export-competitive and promote manufacturing. America's traditional brands had lost some of their luster: No longer was General Motors the pride of global automaking; iPhones were neat, but made in China. Meanwhile, India's Tata Corp. bought iconic brands like Jaguar, Land Rover, and Tetley Tea. China's Geely bought Volvo, while Lenovo purchased IBM's computer division. In South Korea, Samsung and Hyundai became major players; in Taiwan, HTC came from nowhere to be a recognized and respected brand name. To cap it all off, it seemed an irreversible trend: The United States had missed the boat in becoming a "green" leader in a more environmentally conscious world as it ceded ground to mass production in China and innovation in Europe.
       我们曾经认为是发达国家失去了“必胜的信念”和驱动力,才将制造业拱手让给新兴市场。中国和印度释放了私营经济的主动性,拥有较低的劳动成本,在基础设施上大量投入,在这样的基础上才得以为制造业建造出一个非常好的平台或者说强大的保障体系。以中国为代表的国家通过低成本地制造低价产品几乎垄断了市场。美国的消费者开始觉得在沃尔玛的货架“争夺战”中,中国成为了赢家。在基础设施建设上,单就修建21世纪的道路、铁路、桥梁、管道、机场和通讯科技网络来说,美国已经远远落后。政治对抗加上预算和债务危机让政府将工作重点放在了“削减开支”上,而不是花钱去重建基础设施,尽管其有利于保持出口优势和发展制造业。美国的传统品牌已经失去了原有的光彩:通用汽车不再是全球汽车制造业的骄傲,iPhone确实很成功,但却在中国制造。而另一方面我们看到,在印度,塔塔集团收购著名品牌捷豹、路虎和泰特莱茶叶公司;中国,吉利公司收购沃尔沃,联想收购IBM的个人电脑事业部;韩国,三星公司和现代公司是重量级选手;台湾,HTC从一个名不见经传的公司发展成为广受好评的著名品牌。说到这里,我们看到了一个不可逆转的趋势:当美国将大规模生产交到中国手中,将创新产业交给欧洲后,它已经失去了在当今这个环保世界成为“绿色”领导者的机会。
But as I saw on my travels, the story is beginning to change. I now believe the despair and fear felt by many in the United States is misplaced. In fact, there are early signs that the United States may be regaining some of its lost competitiveness in manufacturing and that China is losing some ground, especially against other emerging markets.
       但是此次出行让我看到,这样的情况已经开始变化了。现在,我认为目前许多美国人的担心和绝望情绪是没有必要的。实际上,有迹象表明美国似乎正在重新获得在制造业上一度丢失的竞争优势,而中国正失去在某些方面的领先地位,尤其是相对于其他新兴市场来说。
Game-changers in the making: As I see it, there are five game-changers now happening in emerging markets:
制造业的规则改变者:就我看来,目前有五个改变制造业规则的因素存在于新兴市场。
1. The shale gas explosion
1.页岩气大量涌现。
2. The erosion of low-cost advantage
2.低成本优势的消退
3. The burden of aging populations
3.人口老龄化的压力
4. The smartphone revolution
4.智能手机革命
5. The fighting spirit of smarter competition
5.聪明竞争、奋勇战斗
These five game-changers constitute nothing short of quiet revolutions, and they will have a huge impact over the next decade, completely reshaping the competitive landscape. You'll soon see the effect in earnings, margins, growth, and foreign direct investment.
       这五个规则改变者堪称不动声色的革命,将完全改变全球竞争力分布面貌,对未来十年产生巨大影响。很快大家就可以在收入、盈余、增长和外商直接投资等方面看到其影响。
1. The shale gas explosion: The United States is becoming a low-cost producer of energy again, as a result of vast new discoveries of natural gas. The glut has made natural gas prices of $2 to $2.50 per 1 million BTU equivalent to oil at about $12 to $15 per barrel, which is quite an incentive to use more gas for electricity, petrochemicals, industrial applications, trucking, and even cars. In contrast, China and Japan are now forced to import gas at much higher prices of $13 to $17 per 1 million BTU. Supercheap gas is also making the United States a great place to invest again for energy-intensive industries. For example, the Chilean company Methanex recently moved its production of petrochemicals from Chile to Texas, and Orascom Construction in Egypt is building a fertilizer plant in the United States. This will be a true game-changer for the next decade and will help make manufacturing more competitive in the United States.
1.页岩气的大量涌现:由于新发现的大规模天然气储备,美国正在再次成为低成本能源产出国。供给过剩使天然气的价格降至2-2.5美元/百万英热单位,以等值热量计算,相当于每桶石油12-15美元的价格水平。这使得天然气在发电、石油化工、工业应用、货运甚至汽车业得到更广泛的应用。相比之下,中国和日本不得不以13-17美元/百万BTU的价格进口天然气。超低价位的天然气使美国再次成为能源密集型行业投资的好地方。智利的梅赛尼斯公司最近将其石油化工产品的工厂从本国搬到了美国德克赛斯州,埃及欧瑞斯克姆建筑工业集团正在美国建造一所化肥工厂。这在下个世纪必定会成为“规则改变者”,使美国发展制造业优势更加明显。
In the future, gas will be king rather than oil. In a decade, gas prices may no longer be set by oil prices, but the other way round.
        未来,天然气将成为主宰,而非石油。十年以后,将不再是石油价格决定天然气价格,而是反之。
As the United States is winning the lower-carbon energy race, it is becoming more energy independent. In fact, the liquid natural gas facilities built to import gas from Russia and Qatar may be used in a few years to export gas to Asia.
       随着在低碳能源竞赛中的取胜,美国在能源上的地位更加独立。实际上,或许几年后,那些原本用于进口俄罗斯和卡塔尔液化天然气的终端设施或许会被用来向亚洲出口天然气。
China has its own shale gas but the United States has a major head start in geology, technology, and pipelines. It will take China several years to catch up. India's offshore gas production has been disappointing and slow. Thailand will run out of gas in ten years, though Myanmar will bring on line large new supplies.
       中国也有页岩气储备,但是美国在地质学、开采技术以及管线方面都遥遥领先。中国要花几年的时间才能赶超美国。印度的近海天然气产量低得让人失望。泰国的天然气储备只够支持十年的用量,唯有缅甸将有较多的天然气供应。
2. The erosion of the low-cost advantage: China is no longer the place for manufacturing. Wages in China and India have been rising at 15-20 percent over the past five years. Meanwhile, stagnant wage growth in the United States and the rising Chinese yuan has devalued the dollar on a trade-weighted basis.
2.低成本优势的消退:中国已经不再是制造业的天堂。中国和印度的工资在过去五年已经上涨了15%-20%。同时,美国相对稳定的工资增长以及人民币的升值已经在贸易加权的层面上造成了美元的减值。
A large wage gap remains but even narrowing it will have a big impact. In a dinner speech at the Brookings Institution, Jeff Immelt of GE claimed that an American factory worker can be competitive at $15 per hour with a $3 worker in China.
        虽然工资差距仍然很大,但是仅仅是差距的缩小造成的影响就将足够大。在一次布鲁金斯协会的晚宴上,通用电气总裁伊梅尔特发表讲话说,公司在美国工厂花费15美元/小时聘请工人,相比在中国花3美元/小时请工人,对公司来说效果是一样的。
Unit labor costs in the United States, according to OECD data, have declined from 100 to 88 since 1995, better than anywhere in the developed world except Sweden (80). For comparison, Spain (135) and Italy (120) are much higher. That's good news for U.S. global competitiveness.
         根据经济合作与发展组织的数据,在美国,单位劳动成本已经从1995年的100下降到了88,是所有发达国家中除了瑞典(80)之外最低的。相比之下,西班牙(135)和意大利(120)都要高得多。这对美国的全球竞争力是非常有益的。
According to several manufacturers I met with who have plants in China, China now suffers from a lack of technologically trained manpower. Bangladesh and Vietnam are now lower-cost manufacturing centers than China -- even Thailand, the Philippines, and Mexico are becoming wage competitive.
       据我所会见的几位在中国有工厂的制造商说,中国现在非常缺少经过技术培训的工人。如今,孟加拉国和越南是较之中国更低成本地制造中心——甚至泰国、菲律宾和墨西哥都开始显现出在劳动力价格方面的竞争力。
Productivity per manufacturing worker is also better in the United States than widely assumed. Hyundai, for example, has car plants in South Korea, the United States, China, and India and "unit per hour" production is actually highest in Alabama.
       在美国,每个制造业工人所创造的产值也比大家普遍认为的水平要高。比如现代公司,它在韩国、美国、中国和印度都有工厂,而就“单位/小时”产量来说,最高的实际上是美国阿拉巴马州工厂。
World-class Indian car axle maker Bharat Forge found that Chinese workers in its plants had only 40 percent of the productivity of other workers. The Pune hub (near Mumbai) has become much more competitive because of trained labor and better transportation (a container trip to the port used to take at least two days but now only four hours and the port is more efficient).
       印度世界级汽车车轴制造商巴拉特公司发现,企业中中国工人的生产力只有其他工人的40%。浦那轮毂工厂(孟买附近)由于有训练有素的工人和更为方便的交通(以前一只集装箱要运到港口至少要两天,而现在只需四个小时,而且港口交通也更方便了)变得更有竞争力。
Of course, China's enormous competitive advantage is not just in wages but also in its scale for assembly-type production, infrastructure, internal competition, and growing domestic market. These advantages are not going to disappear overnight but are now being questioned.
       当然,中国巨大的竞争优势并不只在于劳动力价格,还与装配型生产的规模、基础设施、国内竞争和日益增长的国内市场有关。这些优势不会在一夜间消失,但是现在也开始受到质疑。
3. The burden of aging populations: This is no longer a theoretical problem, but a very real one, especially in China. Demographics will make their power felt this coming decade as they never have before and change the competitive picture. China and South Korea, along with Europe and Japan, are aging fast. India and Africa still have large untapped labor pools, though they need to be better trained. Consider these statistics about China's demographics:
3.人口老龄化的压力:这个问题已经不仅仅存在于理论中,它是现实存在的,尤其在中国。人口的威力将在未来十年显现,并将改变竞争力分布局面。中国和韩国,再加上欧洲和日本,都经历着快速老龄化。印度和非洲依然存在大量剩余劳动力,但是需要更充分的培训。看一看下面有关中国的人口统计数据:
There were 26 million births in 1987 but only 15 million today.
       1987年出生人口两千六百万,而现在只有一千五百万。
With a fully employed migrant labor pool there are now increasing labor shortages, with 1.08 job opportunities for each job seeker.
       在流动劳动力充分就业的情况下,劳动力缺口越来越大,每个求职者平均拥有1.08个工作机会。
The increase in China's working population has shrunk from 10 million to 3 million per year and will be negative by 2018, if not sooner.
       中国的就业人口已经从每年一千万下降到三百万,最晚到2018年将出现负增长,还可能更早。
Within 20 years, its retired (60-plus) population will double from 180 million to 360 million (bigger than the entire U.S. population). A professional family now worries already about having to take care of four elderly parents. The support ratio was 5:1 and will be 2:1 in the not too distant future.
       在20年内,退休人口(60岁以上)将从一亿八千万翻番至三亿六千万(比美国总人口都多)。双职工家庭已经开始为赡养四位老人的压力发愁。不久的将来,赡养比率将从5:1变为2:1。
The savings rate will drop, and entitlements (now unfunded liabilities) will increase. According to some Chinese economists, the Chinese economy won't be able to grow more than 6 to 7 percent by the end of this decade without collapsing under the burden of these unfunded liabilities.
       储蓄率也将下降,收入需求(现在的无资金准备负债)将增加。根据一些中国经济学家的说法,在不被这些无资金准备负债压垮的情况下,中国经济要想在十年后达到6%-7%的增长率是不太可能的。
In the meantime, proposals to reform health care and pensions, an urgent necessity, have gathered dust as vested interests and political indecision have delayed action.
       与此同时,在既得利益集团和政治不作为的阻遏下,亟需进行的医疗和养老金改革无法实施,相关改革方案几近尘封。
4. The smartphone revolution: The speed with which everyone in the world -- not just the rich, the elites, or developed economies -- embraced mobile phones has been astounding. The same is now beginning to happen with smartphones and tablets as prices rapidly drop to an "affordable" level of $120 (without subsidies) thanks to competition from Chinese clones.
4.智能手机革命:世界是个每个人——不仅是富人、精英和上层人士——更换手机的速度都是惊人的。这同样对于智能手机和平板电脑也适用,得感谢中国竞争对手的“克隆”,它们的价格已经快速地跌到了大家能“负担得起”的120美元左右(无补贴)。
Within five years, several billion people will be "addicted" to smartphones -- emailing, browsing, taking photos and videos, making video calls, using myriad apps, streaming, and playing games.
       五年内,几百万人将“迷恋上”智能手机——收发邮件、浏览网页、拍摄照片和视频、打视频电话、使用无数的应用、搜寻海量信息、还有玩游戏。
The smart-pad will bring high-quality education to the masses around the globe. Taking classes online or being part of an interactive presentation will be as commonplace as Googling today.
       智能平板电脑将为全球大众提供高水平教育。到那时,网上听课和参与互动讲演就像今天使用谷歌搜索一样普遍。
Bandwidth, good infrastructure, and monthly costs (which are rivaling the cost of food for poor families) will become increasingly important.
       带宽、优质电信基础设施以及每月花费(能抵得上贫穷人家的食物支出)将变得越来越重要。
Interestingly again, in the speedy world of smartphones, China is falling behind in its telecom infrastructure (despite an otherwise great infrastructure). China was already behind in the past generation (3G) of telecom infrastructure because it unsuccessfully tried to sell the world on its own 3G standard, something the Koreans learned to avoid earlier. It will not issue licenses for its newest version of 4G (TD-LTE) until 2014.
       有趣的事情再一次发生了,在这个智能手机主导的快捷世界,中国在电信基础设施上却处于落后地位(尽管其他方面的基础设施很优质)。中国在上个电信时代(3G)基础设施就已经落后,因为它曾试图将自己的3G标准推销给世界,结果失败。韩国之前则学到了避免这样的错误。到2014年,它才会为最新版本的4G网络(TD-LTE)颁发许可。
Moreover, even though the traditional Internet cafes are increasingly being replaced by more than 1 million hot spots, for home Wi-Fi China has only just started to make a major investment.
       虽然传统的网吧越来越多地被一百多万的家庭网络热点所取代,但是中国对于家庭无线网络的投入才刚刚起步。
It is interesting to watch that, despite competition from the clones, in the premium-brand sector, Apple's iPhone (assembled by a Taiwanese firm in China with key components from Samsung) has become a status symbol in China and elsewhere, even in Seoul's "Samsung city."
       有趣的是,我们看到尽管有来自“克隆”者的竞争,在主打手机品牌中,苹果的iPhone(中国台湾组装,主要部件来自三星)已然成为地位的象征,在中国,在别处,甚至在首尔的“三星城”。
5. The fighting spirit of smarter competition: It seemed for a while that the United States would leave the manufacturing to emerging markets and focus instead on innovation, design, finance, and super-high-value-added manufacturing. It is now widely recognized that this was a losing strategy. As Andy Grove of Intel once observed, for every manufacturing job generated in the United States by the computer industry, 10 are outsourced to emerging markets. For job creation, it is important to realize that there are many more "makers" than "thinkers." While R&D is spreading around the world, a lot of key innovation remains in the United States, Japan, and Europe. Indeed, leading companies there have adjusted to compete in a world with huge markets outside their borders and aggressively competing emerging world class companies. They are competing smarter and are fighting back. For example:
5.聪明竞争、奋勇战斗:曾经有一段时间,美国似乎要将制造业留给新兴市场,而将重点放在创新、设计、金融行业以及超高端制造业上。现在看来,这个战略是失败的。正如英特尔公司的安迪·格鲁夫所观察到的,由计算机工业衍生出的制造业岗位,有10个外包到了新兴市场。从创造就业的层面说,我们应该意识到“制造者”永远比“思考者”多。现在全球都在搞研发,但许多的关键性创新项目仍出自美国,日本和欧洲。实际上,这些地区的大公司已经学会了如何在拥有广阔的海外市场的情况下进行竞争,去奋勇击败新兴的全球性公司。他们学会了聪明地竞争和反击。比如:
Apple, Qualcomm, Google, Amazon, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and Bloomberg are just some examples of new "brands" and of companies at the leading edge of innovation which did not exist or were tiny a decade ago. Today's world could not live without their inventions, used by millions around the world and which are constantly imitated.
       很多最前沿的创新型品牌在十年前根本不存在,或者规模很小,苹果、高通、谷歌、亚马逊、脸书、Youtube视频网站、推特和彭博社只是其中几例。今天的世界已经离不开这些公司的产品,它们拥有全球超百万的用户,一直在被同行模仿。
Not only big companies like Caterpillar but many small companies in the United States have adapted to competition from emerging markets by specializing in technologically advanced, higher value, high-precision manufacturing that integrate electronics and use sophisticated automation.
       在美国,不只是像卡特彼勒这样的大公司,就连很多小公司都已经开始加入与新兴市场的竞争中,它们把电子科技与高精度自动化管理结合起来,专攻高科技、高产值、高精度的制造业。
American firms hire hundreds of thousands of software engineers in India (and thus from potential Indian competitors).
       美国公司在印度雇佣了成千上万的软件工程师(实际成为他们潜在的对手)。
When smartphone baseband chip designer Qualcomm saw that a Taiwanese competitor became the "go to" source for Chinese clones for low-cost processor chips, it dropped its prices and forced it on the defensive. It could do so because it is a price setter with high margins rather than a price taker.
       当智能手机基带芯片的设计公司高通公司发现台湾竞争对手成了中国大陆克隆机的“供货商”,为其提供廉价处理器芯片时,它采取了降价策略,把竞争者逼到被动地位。它能够这样做是因为产品的高利润使它掌握着定价权,而不必被动接受市场价格。
With some jealousy it is said these days in Asia that 90 percent of profits go to Apple and 10 percent to China. This gives these companies enormous pricing power and high margins. What most people don't realize is how concentrated the key parts of the smartphone industry are. There are less than a handful of companies that design the most expensive chips in the smartphone (based mostly on ARM architecture), and they are mostly made by two fabrication firms (TSMC and Samsung). China is way behind in this area. There are also only a handful of companies that make the touch screens for smartphones.
       在今天的亚洲,90%的利润到了苹果公司,10%到了中国,这可能是有些人不愿意接受的事实。这使这些公司很大程度上掌握着定价权,享受着高利润空间。很多人没有意识到智能手机关键部件生产是多么集中。智能手机中最昂贵的芯片部分的设计只集中在几个公司(主要使用ARM架构),制造也主要集中在两家公司(台积电和三星)。中国在这一领域还十分落后。能制造智能手机的触摸屏的公司也微乎其乎。
Infrastructure, especially in the United States, fell way behind but, while this remains a political football, more attention is being paid to the importance of infrastructure as a source of competitiveness. There were less "shovel-ready" infrastructure projects than initially believed for the stimulus but the ultimate return on investment may be higher. The United States has regained a bit of ground in the global infrastructure race as new airports, pipelines, and local projects come on stream and shale gas is being developed.
       基础设施,尤其是在美国,已严重落后。尽管它仍然是个政治皮球,但是人们已经认识到基础设施是竞争力的源泉,并且给予它越来越多的关注。虽然较之之前的预计,现在已经没有那么多“准备就绪”的基础设施工程来刺激经济,但是最终的投资回报或许更高。随着机场、管道、区域水利工程的兴建以及页岩气的开发,美国已经在全球基础设施竞赛中重新赶了上来。
No more can we maintain a blind reliance on mega-emerging markets to sustain future global growth. After a decade of 10-plus percent growth in China and a shorter period of 8-10 percent growth in India, the remainder of this decade is likely to bring only 6-7 percent growth, a fact to which the rest of the world will have to adjust reluctantly -- as it struggles with its own problems and growth of less than half that rate. We all took the rapid growth of China and India for granted too easily. This will be a rude awakening for those who like to project past trends forward.
       我们不能再靠对广阔的新兴市场的盲目依赖来维持未来全球经济增长。最近十年来,中国经济增长都在10%以上;印度在近几年也达到8%-10%。但很可能在未来几年下降到6%-7%。这个事实可能让世界其他国家无所适从,但它们必须适应——毕竟它们的增长率还不到这个的一半,而且还有本国事务需要担心。我们都太轻易地将中国和印度的快速发展当做理所当然。这将残酷地唤醒那些仅凭过去的趋势进行规划的人。
But there is a new reason for optimism. The shift in China to less dependence on exports and less aggressive investment in fixed assets in favor of higher consumption of anything from food, clothing and smartphones to healthcare, travel and education will gradually dissolve the large export surpluses and create a more balanced and sustainable global economy.
       但是还有一个理由让我们保持乐观。中国对出口的依赖将减小,对固定资产的投资将趋于理性的水平,同时,对从食品、服装到智能手机,再到医疗保险、旅游和教育的消费将上涨,这将逐渐消除中国巨大的出口顺差,创造全球经济均衡发展,持续繁荣的局面。
This will be a different era for Asia. Sure, the region's emerging markets proved themselves much more resilient in the global financial crisis and came out of it faster and in better shape. China's fast-acting stimulus, in many ways, was a major turning point and saved the world from deeper problems. But the challenges of the next decade require a more sustained approach: balancing growth with inflation and local consumption with export dependence and relentless investment is critical, particularly if policy makers we want to ensure a smooth path to a future growth model.
       对亚洲来说,这是一个新的纪元。的确,在面对全球金融危机时,亚洲的新兴市场证明了自身的弹性,它们走出阴影更快,并且恢复得更好。从很多方面来说,是中国的及时刺激带来了重要转折点,把全球从更深的危机中解救了出来。但是来自未来十年的挑战需要的是更为持续的方式:平衡经济发展与通货膨胀,本国购买与出口需要,引进稳定的投资,如果政府希望其未来发展的道路平坦顺利,这些都是至关重要的。

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