2012年6月26日星期二

The executives said that the Chinese data cover up the deep-seated problems of economic slowdown

HONG KONG - China's economy is climbing, the well-known business executives in China and Western economists claim that there are indications that local officials forged economic data to cover up the true depth.
The electricity sector executives said the power plants to cope with falling demand for electricity, coal decreased, a record surplus of Meishan accumulation in the country's largest store. But local officials forced the power plant is responsible for the people to Beijing to report on the overall demand slowdown.
Generating capacity and electricity consumption has been considered a variety of economic activities illustrates the problem of signal flag. These parameters are foreign investors and even some Chinese officials as the gold standard measure of domestic economic situation browse. Collect and submit data is not considered to be the same reliable, like other countries.
Even corporate executives and economists said some local officials are exaggerating the economic production and corporate earnings, corporate profits and tax revenues. Officials by forcing companies keep two sets of books to show this non-existent business performance and revenue growth.
Executives and economists have a rough estimate of the impact of inaccurate data is to make a wide range of economic indicators to go up 1-2% error. This may be enough to make a very bad economic dynamic look just a little bit worse. Executives and economists who requested anonymity because of fear of the relationship between the hazards to which they depend to give them the data and trade orders, the Chinese government.
The lair of the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing, a compilation of most of the country's economic statistics, denied the economic data has been exaggerated. "This is not based on evidence." An agency spokesman said.
Some people still believe the official data. Templeton Emerging Markets Group Executive Chairman MarkMobius references to China's economy is the reality of the plight of this skepticism affirm the power data to be reported. "I do not think that economic vitality is so bad - just to look at the generating capacity," he said.
But one related to the National Bureau of Statistics, economists say, the staff has commenced to ask to detect the signal power data may have been exaggerated.
Chinese economic data quality and accuracy is there for a long time, but now the degree of concern has been raised is not unusual. This year is the first time since 89 years coincides with the decennial national leaders alternately sharp economic downturn.
Government officials at all levels in a report to the Beijing economic and development outcomes, in order to wait for promotion, demotion and transfer under the pressure of decentralization from the central. Therefore, the more limited the seemingly more obscure measure of economic activity data has been tampered with, according to executives and economists said.
"Government officials do not want to see negative news, so they tell the power responsible for the reported no decline, a power sector Chief Executive said.
Another grid data can be obtained from the center of heavy industry in Shandong and Jiangsu of East China two business executives in China, the power consumption of the two provinces in May over the same period last year decreased by 10%. Central and western parts of electricity consumption has declined. However, economists of the National Unification Council across the country, cities and provinces report electricity consumption flat or slightly rising.
Senior analyst of global energy consulting firm伍德麦肯兹Asian coal RohanKendall coal train faster than the needs of China Southern Power Station, this month Qinhuangdao Port coal stocks reached 9.5 million tons, which exceeds earlier in November 2008 the depths of the global financial crisis created by the record of 9.3 million tons.
China's three major coal storage area - Tianjin, Caofeidian and Lianyungang - also exceeded historical levels, a top executive in China said.
The economic slowdown in China many economic indicators have been showing in the spring of this year, fixed-asset investment growth since 2001, the weakest pace in May. The average annual growth rate of industrial production was slightly lower than 10%, while generating capacity increased by only 3.2 percent in May from a year earlier, only 1.5 percent in April.
The question is whether the actual slowdown is more severe. Distorted the government data on to explain why oil, coal and copper and other commodity prices this spring fell sharply a disservice, even though the Chinese official statistics show a more moderate slowdown in economic activity.
Official statistics to be manipulated, and why some consumer goods and building materials wholesalers that dismal sales now in early 2009, provides a clue.
Decision-makers to maintain accurate data for internal use while releasing less grim figures to the public and the financial markets may help explain why the Chinese central bank suddenly and unexpectedly cut interest rates earlier this month.
Over the years, Goldman Sachs and other institutions are strongly recommended, Chinese statisticians to rationalize quarter growth data, underestimated the growth in the period of economic prosperity, the exaggerated growth of the economic recession.
Chinese officials in the past raised questions about China's economic statistical data reliability. A U.S. diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks, was widely expected this fall, the Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, in 2007, said he noted that broad measures of economic growth in China is "artificial" and therefore unreliable.
Lee told a U.S. diplomat, he saw, not the three indicators, which he described as unlikely to be fabricated: electricity consumption, rail cargo volume and the amount of bank lending.
International Energy Agency, an energy expert, Qiaonasenxin, said he had not heard the false data of China's electricity sector, and his five power generation companies to produce half of China's electricity is feasible skeptical.
"If you have a problem here, it will be locked in the smallest producers who," he said, be careful, even if these producers eventually must submit accurate information to reconcile fuel, electricity and financial accounts.
Standard Chartered Bank economist Stephen Green said the Chinese economy is still likely to resume this fall, as an additional bank loans to stimulate consumption.
But one independent of the Government, HSBC and Markit announced last Thursday, a Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers survey feedback, given its business since March 2009, the second pessimistic reading material. Worse than last November, many small and medium-sized enterprises are faced with a short and severe monetary tightening.

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