2012年6月14日星期四

Institutional change: loss of faith | The Economist

Yesterday colleagues wrote a very interesting article, the main contents of the many problems on the world economy. Feeling (the text of the statements I have read) seems a bit too optimistic, but it points to the unhealthy tendency of the current world economy, and focus on those interesting and troubled. As pointed out by the morning of another colleague in exchange, the contrast in many ways, the crisis of 2008 is not so frightening. For most of the key financial institutions in the shadow banking system (that crisis) has brought a real panic. Decision-makers spent a long time to realize that the crisis the seriousness of and respond to. Response lag to become the next economic downturn deepening the main reason. Referenced in the article of my colleagues view, this crisis is different (2008). A wide range of system crisis appears to be brewing. Market capacity for macroeconomic management in governments around the world questioned, just have not lead to disastrous consequences. Europe is the most clear and most dangerous tipping point in this crisis, but by no means the only one. Colleagues pointed out that the political contest last year, the U.S. debt ceiling crisis, a severe blow to market confidence, worrying is that the more severe end of this year's financial confrontation has emerged. China's economy is slowing down the pace, but the behavior of the various policy tools to support the economy is very obvious. The weak economic situation and the transfer of the rights of non-transparent government, unrest began to initiation. In India, citizens and the market began to rethink their understanding of the economic point of view. At one time, India is considered to walk in the firm reform and rapid economic growth on the road, but the explosive growth of exports in recent years seems to be just a flash in the pan, and the future reform still faces enormous challenges, and even lead to political war. At present, our internal in most of the world's major economies, it seems very easy to find a similar situation. In several major economies in the world, such a system crisis may lead to the maddening currency reflow cycle. Or Europe, for example, before the euro area political system does not improve, the leadership system is not yet fully constructed, the ECB is reluctant to increase intervention in the economy. But this omission, so that the Eurozone economy is losing the necessary support, while increasing pressure on political institutions. May not be obvious, a similar situation also affects the behavior of the Fed. (Everyone) it is easy to the current situation between the two world wars (1918-1936) period compared to, nowhere to be found to more comparable than the period of macroeconomic times. Nevertheless, the two times there are many significant differences: the heavy sovereign debt, difficult to control the imbalance in the system of fixed currency, support for political and financial system, a well-functioning economy, central bankers seem to (not duties) inefficient economic leadership. The chaos behind the main features of economic weakness and political institutions to produce enough pressure to lead to increasingly serious vicious cycle. This loop can be many ways to break. End a vicious cycle or stop, change to the monetary system (gold standard and reflationary policy to stop) and obviously the political division of concessions: Some of these changes is relatively mild, but some terrifying. The former has not been difficult to imagine that the current crisis can be relatively modest monetary system and political system changes to avoid change, the latter (and terrifying) are concentrated in Europe, these changes will also occur in other countries such as China and the United States, as well as some international organizations. But the Great Depression and the crisis of the development process, if there is no urgent pressure, the change will not happen. The flames of panic (mentality) and depression (reality) in order to cast the sword of reform. Many cases, decision-makers before the crisis began to reform the basic is not possible, the worst case has not yet appeared addressing the related issues is unimaginable. Again, this applies not only in Europe, also applies to other big countries and the global economy. Of course, the crisis, especially the tragedy is the example of the Great Depression still fresh in our memory, and (everyone) to heart. In fact, the core departments or the study of the Great Depression the hands of scholars, and other departments are established absorb the lessons of the Great Depression. When the long handle, and no one should not fantasy the final results can be good to go. However, this awareness may in fact become a burden, as (we) the root causes of complacency. Decision-makers believe that we may make mistakes, but we at least know how to avoid (make mistakes). Do they really think so? Throughout the world, the fact that (our mistakes and not make mistakes), faith is being shaken. Without the baptism of the disaster rush to restore the belief that only a miracle.

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